M
3

Paris, France

SITE FR3650·Paris, France·Outbreak signal

Wastewater lead time

91 d

ahead of clinical confirmation

Early warning

Clinical case data confirms an outbreak only after people seek care. MOSAIC reads the wastewater first, flagging growth roughly 91 days ahead.

94%

P(Rt > 1) fused posterior

1.55

Rt [1.37-1.77]

7,000,000

population under surveillance

91 d

median early-warning lead

Drivers & context

beyond the 3 fusion streams · rank #1 of 39
Clinical syndromic
63ED/ILI index-3

Syndromic visits are mid-range; not yet corroborating a surge.

Test positivity
21%+5

High positivity suggests testing is missing cases; true incidence likely exceeds reports.

ICU headroom
41% free+9

Hospitals have ample capacity to absorb a near-term rise.

Travel inflow
86connectivity+3

High inbound connectivity raises importation risk for novel variants and pathogens.

Climate suitability
25index-9

Seasonal conditions are not currently favorable to transmission.

Immunity coverage
76%+2

Coverage provides a meaningful buffer against severe outcomes.

Raising risk

  • SARS-CoV-2 wastewater rising 95% over 15 days
  • Test positivity at 21% (elevated)

Lowering risk

  • ICU headroom healthy at 41
  • Immunity coverage healthy at 76%

Pathogen surveillance

SARS-CoV-2sim
85.0WVAL /100
vs thr 80
+95%106% of threshold

above alert threshold

Influenza Asim
13.7WVAL /100
vs thr 65
~0%21% of threshold

stable at current level

Influenza Bsim
19.4WVAL /100
vs thr 65
-1%30% of threshold

stable at current level

RSVsim
18.2WVAL /100
vs thr 60
-9%30% of threshold

↓ easing, ~1 d below watch

Norovirussim
31.5WVAL /100
vs thr 70
-26%45% of threshold

↓ easing, ~1 d below watch

Mpox (MPXV)sim
16.6WVAL /100
vs thr 50
+10%33% of threshold

~27 d to threshold at trend

Measles (MeV)sim
14.5WVAL /100
vs thr 40
-18%36% of threshold

↓ easing, ~1 d below watch

Denguesim
13.9WVAL /100
vs thr 60
-23%23% of threshold

↓ easing, ~1 d below watch

Cholerasim
8.6WVAL /100
vs thr 45
+14%19% of threshold

~21 d to threshold at trend

Poliovirussim
13.9WVAL /100
vs thr 35
-18%40% of threshold

↓ easing, ~1 d below watch

Hepatitis Asim
15.3WVAL /100
vs thr 55
-4%28% of threshold

↓ easing, ~1 d below watch

Avian flu (H5N1)sim
8.2WVAL /100
vs thr 40
+20%20% of threshold

~13 d to threshold at trend

Pertussissim
16.8WVAL /100
vs thr 55
+5%30% of threshold

~61 d to threshold at trend

Rotavirussim
14.1WVAL /100
vs thr 60
-24%24% of threshold

↓ easing, ~1 d below watch

MOSAIC inference pipeline

Ingest

3 surveillance streams

WastewaterCDC NWSS
GenomicNextstrain
Outbreak textWHO · ProMED
Per-stream detectors

anomaly scoring

BOCPD85%
KL-divergence31%
NLP + change-pt25%
Bayesian fusion

hierarchical model

EpiEstim Rt1.55
Learned weightslogistic
PosteriorNUTS / MCMC
Calibrate → alert

P(Rt > 1)

Isotonic ECE0.086
P(Rt>1)94%
Lead time91 d

Circulating lineages

Nextstrain
JN.1
26%+0.1pp
KP.2.3
25%+0.3pp
XDV.1
23%+0.0pp
XEC
13%+0.9pp
MC.1
13%+2.7pp

Daily surveillance briefing

auto-generated · 2025-09-07

Elevated outbreak signal at Paris, France. The fused model puts P(Rt>1) at 94% (Rt ≈ 1.55), rising over the past two weeks. SARS-CoV-2 wastewater activity is 85/100 (+95% / 15 d), serving a population of 7,000,000. Targets above threshold: SARS-CoV-2. Dominant circulating lineage is JN.1 (26% of sequences). At the current trajectory the wastewater signal leads clinical confirmation by roughly 91 days.

94%

P(Rt>1)

1.55

Rt median

JN.1

dominant lineage

Recent activity

SARS-CoV-2 crossed alert threshold

today

NWSS sample ingested

today

Daily surveillance briefing generated

today

BOCPD change-point detected, SARS-CoV-2

2d ago

Global sewershed network

39 sites · 19 countries